General Discussions
This is the place to discuss general issues related to the U-boat war or the war at sea in WWII.
Re: Claims?
Posted by:
SuperKraut
()
Date: October 16, 2001 03:32PM
<HTML>With the help of Excel and Bodo Herzog, I have compiled some numbers on German U-boat claims vs. actual ships sunk. Unfortunately Herzog only provides complete monthly data for 1942, the rest is incomplete, especially the number of ships sunk.
The overall ratio of claims to actual tonnage sunk for most of the war (mainly Aug. 1943 - June 1944 is missing) is 1.46:1, i.e. the overclaim rate is 46%. The best data available for number of ships is a ratio of 1.21:1 or 21% overclaim. It is also interesting to look at the data by year. In the first 12 months of the war, the ratio was 1.47:1, or 47% overclaim. Six months of data for 1941 indicate a ratio of 1.3:1 or 30%. In 1942 ships were overclaimed at a ratio of 1.12:1 or 12% and tonnage at 1.31:1 or 31%. Data for the first half of 1943 gives us an overclaim of 34% for ships and 51% for tonnage. The numbers for 1944 based on the second half of the year show exaggerated overclaims of 80% for ships and 94% for tonnage. It gets even worse in 1945 with 88% overclaim on ships and 147% on tonnage.
The number of ships sunk agreed in one month at 23 in Dec. 1941, however the tonnage disagreed by 14%. In June and July 1942 the number of ships disagreed by one each (132 vs. 131, 92 vs 93, an underclaim) and the combined tonnage by 28%. It looks like it was a lot more difficult to estimate the tonnage, but the discrepancies in number of ships sunk is surprising.
Regards,
SuperKraut</HTML>
The overall ratio of claims to actual tonnage sunk for most of the war (mainly Aug. 1943 - June 1944 is missing) is 1.46:1, i.e. the overclaim rate is 46%. The best data available for number of ships is a ratio of 1.21:1 or 21% overclaim. It is also interesting to look at the data by year. In the first 12 months of the war, the ratio was 1.47:1, or 47% overclaim. Six months of data for 1941 indicate a ratio of 1.3:1 or 30%. In 1942 ships were overclaimed at a ratio of 1.12:1 or 12% and tonnage at 1.31:1 or 31%. Data for the first half of 1943 gives us an overclaim of 34% for ships and 51% for tonnage. The numbers for 1944 based on the second half of the year show exaggerated overclaims of 80% for ships and 94% for tonnage. It gets even worse in 1945 with 88% overclaim on ships and 147% on tonnage.
The number of ships sunk agreed in one month at 23 in Dec. 1941, however the tonnage disagreed by 14%. In June and July 1942 the number of ships disagreed by one each (132 vs. 131, 92 vs 93, an underclaim) and the combined tonnage by 28%. It looks like it was a lot more difficult to estimate the tonnage, but the discrepancies in number of ships sunk is surprising.
Regards,
SuperKraut</HTML>
| Subject | Written By | Posted |
|---|---|---|
Claims?
|
Erik E | 10/15/2001 02:20PM |
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Re: Claims?
|
oliver | 10/15/2001 02:42PM |
|
Re: Claims?
|
Rainer Kolbicz | 10/15/2001 08:39PM |
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Re: Claims?
|
kurt | 10/15/2001 03:24PM |
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Re: Claims?
|
oliver | 10/15/2001 07:03PM |
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Re: Claims?
|
Derek | 10/16/2001 03:46PM |
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Re: Claims?
|
oliver | 10/22/2001 04:55AM |
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Re: Claims?
|
kurt | 10/16/2001 09:38PM |
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Re: Claims?
|
kurt | 10/16/2001 09:39PM |
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Re: Claims?
|
oliver | 10/22/2001 04:59AM |
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Re: Claims?
|
SuperKraut | 10/16/2001 03:32PM |